Manchester C. vs Bolton

19:45,Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Manchester C. vs Bolton

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Odds when published	1.45
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Hosts Manchester City enter this game on the back of a disappointing 2-1 defeat at lowly Hull City. This will have hurt them because they knew they had to win the game and they're class above Hull City. However, a harsh lesson of the Premier League is that money cannot buy you everything and City are beginning to realise that. I mean, come on - they've appointed Mancini as boss! He's managed for three seasons in Italy and won Serie A three times, yes, but let's not forget that their biggest rivals AC Milan and Juventus were handicapped at the time due to all the internal issues at both clubs at the time which resulted in points being docked from AC Milan and Juventus being relegated to Serie B. I don't personally consider enforcing the power behind Italy's richest club whilst its rivals lie in ruin particularly impressive although that's maybe me being a tad cynical!

Regardless of the above, however, City are a good side. They look potent, which is naturally key to winning any game and little Carlos Tevez is having a dream season at his new club. Manchester City have been a constant force at home this season with eight wins in eleven games, remaining unbeaten throughout. They average scoring nearly three goals per game at home and although they concede more than they should, the hosts tend to outscore their opponents conisderably. They've beaten the -1.75 goal handicap for all three of their last three Premier League games at home and I can't see why they won't do the same again today with the variety of talent available to them in attack.

Visitors Bolton Wanderers are a side that I would have given a good chance of getting a draw here had they had a full squad available to them. However, the fact is that they have a big issue as quintessential defender Gary Cahill is injured for the rest of the season with a blood clot. He is literally the heartbeat of their defence and his loss is one that I expect to cause mass problems in Bolton's defence. City were always going to score goals against Bolton but he would atypically be the difference between a narrow home win and a convincing home win. Bolton have looked a stronger and more organised side under new boss Owen Coyle but have still lost both of their away games under his stewardship by two goals or more and that was with their defensive stalwart. They've played some good sides in that time, don't get me wrong, but Man City are also a good side and are capable of doing real damage to Bolton. Bolton have already lost six out of ten away games in the Premier League this season and average conceding over two goals per away game so they look likely to do the same again today against a good side.

All in all, this bet has been made a lot easier for me by the loss of Gary Cahill. I wouldn't have backed it otherwise but I now expect City to win this game convincingly so backing them to win by two goals or more at odds of -1.25 2.0 with Bet 365, half stake back at one goal win, frankly looks a bargain currently.

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