Introduction

This article aims to set out how a Staking Plan can increase the profitability of a Sports Betting Investor, as well as providing other benefits, for example, in terms of applying security and discipline to the investor's activities. A correctly selected Staking Plan can enhance gains, protect in times of loss, and substantially assist in the success of a venture.

Staking Plan methodology can be adapted to any form of betting or investment, for example, stock market investments, casino table games, etc. where the advantages of staking can be transferred effectively, provided the correct type of plan is applied. A Staking Plan may increase profitability by 10 to 30 %.

Normal betting, as carried out by the majority of people, involves either placing a randomly selected bet amount on any event, according to 'gut feel'. There are no criteria applied to the amount of the bet. If the same bet amount is used for every event, this is called 'flat betting' or 'level stakes', where each bet has exactly the same weighting. There is no adjustment of the bet amount according to the odds being offered, the effect of previous results, the amount available for staking or the effectiveness of the system that is being used.

Definition of a Staking Plan

A Staking Plan is a pre-determined methodology of money management that, when applied to the process of betting or investing, promotes steady overall growth through maximised returns. It ensures that the process will continue by ensuring that funds do not run out, due to the application of protection measures against losses. This is done by assuming that future results will be similar or related to past events, though this fact can never be guaranteed.

The first basis of a Staking Plan is that a separate betting fund or 'bank' is used from which to stake and to which the winnings are added. This means that bets are never placed randomly without being accounted for to the bank amount, and there is a certain amount of limitation of liability in managing the money in this way, rather than betting out of everyday funds. The concept of having a bank and protecting it is fundamental to Staking Plans and applies the first stage of protection.

The Staking Plan is applied to a system of selection, which may use any criteria to select the next bet. It is important to note that a Staking Plan will never select a next bet for the user; it will merely indicate the bet amount.

As a priority, the Betting System used must be assessed in terms of its relative success and also to estimate the worst-case scenario for a losing sequence, ie. the maximum number of consecutive or near-consecutive losses. This eventuality must be allowed for in selecting the bank start amount and in the type of staking plan used.

How to rate a Betting System

A Betting System is rated on 'flat betting' or at 'level stakes', ie. its performance is tested when a consistent bet is placed every time and this allows comparison of systems. Furthermore, points can be applied when assessing a system's success. Points gained by a Betting System are then a factor of the bet amount and the amount of funds held, and can provide a common level for rating, not related to currency.

An example of the application of points to a system might be taking 1 point as 2 % of a bank. With the bank amount of 2 500, 1 point will be 50.

Note: Staking Plan calculations must allow for commission amounts which may be payable on wins if an exchange is used for betting.

The most common Betting System rating is its Strike Rate. This is a measure of the relative success of the system, ie. the percentage of wins out of total bets. The higher the average odds, the lower the strike rate can be. When multiplied by the average odds, a Performance Ratio is obtained for a Betting System.

For a Staking Plan to work, a Betting System must be either successful, ie. having an overall positive result, or marginal, ie. it does not substantially gain or lose money, with the bank balance remaining around zero. A Staking Plan cannot make a successful Betting System out of an unsuccessful one, though some Staking Plans will assist in making a marginal system profitable. This does not mean that the use of a marginal system should be encouraged. The more successful the Betting System, the better the Staking Plan will be able to assist in protection of the bank and in magnifying growth.

Benefits of using a Staking Plan

Use of a Staking Plan can prevent many of the common mistakes in betting. A Staking Plan immediately gives discipline to staking. It establishes a bank amount and imposes rules to every bet made. This prevents betting due to emotional reactions, positive or negative. It records every activity to provide a means of checking and cross-referencing a system. Bets are limited to the amount stipulated by the Staking Plan, which prevents wild or impulse betting.

A Staking Plan is the key to winning by protecting the bank from the risk that it is exposed to by betting, and encourages slow but steady growth rather than a 'get rich quick' mentality.

Bookmakers want a bettor to chase losses with blind hope, often counting on luck, and this is what will happen without the use of a disciplined Staking Plan. The most dangerous time is often at the end of the day when it is tempting to try to recover all the day's losses in one action. A Staking Plan continues from day to day, so there is no 'last race' and this will not happen.

A Staking Plan brings about slow growth through planning and encourages serious betting and sustained profits. The rule of "don't ever bet more than you can afford to lose" is ensured by the use of a Staking Plan.

Features of a Staking Plan

A Staking Plan will:

1) maximize ROI

2) protect the bank

3) indicate the next bet amount

4) prevent level stakes or flat betting

5) reduce and limit exposure

6) assist in making profits from betting

7) maximise the benefits of wins, minimise the effect of losses

8) maintain the lowest exposure when recouping after a losing run

9) position the bettor to gain maximum benefit from a good win

10) act on the effect of each bet, rather than overall performance or emotion

11) turn a marginal system into a profitable system

12) magnify profits in a profitable system

13) minimise losses during a long losing run

14) allow the bank to grow slowly and safely

15) control staking to build profits over time

16) record the results of every bet

17) balance to the bank

18) impose rules for money management

19) provide an exact bank balance at all times

20) enable the bettor to know their exact position

21) monitor and record each bet of a system

22) provides a full record of transactions for checking and recording purposes

23) give control over betting and provide a plan to which to bet

24) help prevent betting blindly or on impulse

A Staking Plan will not:

1) indicate what to bet on

2) turn a losing system into a profitable one

3) predict or guarantee profits

4) make a 'quick buck' , but promote a slow, safe growth process

Types of Staking Plan

A Staking Plan relates the next bet amount to some aspect of the previous events, so a Staking Plan calculation might be related to the current bank amount or the odds offered. Alternatively, it can be calculated according to the relative success of previous bets or geared to recover lost amounts. The best Staking Plans are a combination of several of these methods.

A. Target Based or "Loss Recovery" Staking Plans

This type of Staking Plan involves setting an aim or target to be achieved. Once it has been reached, a new target is set. This means that bets are calculated towards the target amount over a period of time and the Staking Plan is designed to reach this amount regardless of results along the way. For a successful system this can mean steady growth of the bank as targets are set over time and profit is grown slowly.

Progressive staking plans follow this idea, but they must be used with caution, for example doubling up after a losing bet can quickly lead to large losses. Some 'Point Chasing' Staking Plans, which use a target based/loss recovery system, include the Martingale Staking Plan and the high risk Directors Staking Plan.

The danger with this type of system is that if bet amounts are designed to recover losses, the target increases with every loss and a long losing run may exhaust the bank.

B. Bank Based Staking Plans

These Staking Plans calculate the bet amount based on a percentage of the bank available for staking, ie. they run proportionally to bank amount. These are called Percentage or Bank Staking Plans and involve variable staking, sometimes for example as a fixed % of the bank. Examples include Rolling Bank and Square Root Staking Plans.

It must be noted that these methods do not take directly into account the performance of the system they are applied to, only indirectly, by means of the bank movements, though they are safer methods to use as the bet amounts are regulated by the selected bank percentage.

C. Increase Systems

These Staking Plans are directly related to wins and losses ie. to the Strike Rate of the Betting System to which they are applied. Examples include the Fibbonacci, Stepper/Master, Pocket and Percentage Profit Staking Plans.

The application of direct feedback means that these methods are the most responsive to the flow of events; however, this also means that they may not allow maximum benefit from a winning streak.

D. Combined Plans

There are many Staking Plans that combine variations of above plans, for example the Kelly Criteria Staking Plan uses a formula to calculate the next bet based on the strike rate and average odds for the system and then applies a bank percentage to obtain the bet amount. Winfactor Select Staking Plan uses a percentage of the bank according to the success of the system in a similar way.

What to look for in a Staking Plan

A good Staking Plan must recoup successfully after long losing runs whilst maintaining minimum exposure. Since every event presents a new situation, it should calculate a new next bet amount according to the revised bank position after each event.

When lay betting, it should be noted that a Laying Staking Plan must ensure that the bet amount is indirectly proportional to the odds value, ie. the higher the odds, the lower the bet value to a fixed risk amount according to points. Many Laying Staking Plans do not recalculate the bank amount after each event, losing profit potential.

Staking Plan software

Good Staking Plan software should allow easy input of results and give a quick, clear indication of the next bet amount. It may be useful to see the exact calculations of how this amount is obtained, but it is essential to be able to view information on the exact status ie. current bank balance and performance indicators for recent events. It must allow for the application of commissions where necessary.

Ideally, the Plan software should include the facility to test systems at flat betting. With an easy method of input of past results, it should provide as an output the necessary relevant parameters for system assessment and comparison, ie. the strike rate, performance ratio, etc. as well as a summary of the total amount that would have been bet and the return that would be achieved. This enables full 'paper testing' of systems.

Summary

Every race is a different equation so a bet should never be placed without knowing the outcome of the previous event and good Staking Plan software should quickly calculate and display the next bet amount.